Being only a small and insignificant organisation, we would like to take this rare opportunity to blow our own trumpets. Blue Skies Research contributed to one of the runners-up in Science Magazine’s “Breakthrough of the year” review! Specifically, the estimation of climate sensitivity that I previously blogged about here. Obviously, were it not for the…
So, the fortnightly chunks in the last post were doing ok, but it’s still a bit clunky. I quickly found that the MCMC method I was using couldn’t really cope with shorter intervals (meaning more R values to estimate). So, after a bit of humming and hawing, I dusted off the iterative Ensemble Kalman Filter…
The 2 and now 3-segment piecewise constant approach seems to have worked fairly well but is a bit limited. I’m not really convinced that keeping R fixed for such long period and then allowing a sudden jump is really entirely justifiable, especially now we are talking about a more subtle and piecemeal relaxing of controls.…
Well.. that was a very different EGU! We were supposed to be in Vienna, but that was all cancelled a while back of course. I might have felt sorry for my AirBnB host but despite Austria banning everything they didn’t reply to my communication and refused a refund so when AirBnB eventually (after a lot…
And now for the previous post, in reverse. Germany locked down at about the same time as the UK. Actually probably a couple of days earlier, according to Wikipedia and Flaxman et al. Picking a single date is a bit subjective really, but for the purposes of this post I’ll choose the 21st March. So…
A while ago, I mentioned that the cost of delaying lockdown by a week was to increase illness and death by a factor of 5, based on the doubling time of 3 days that the virus seemed to have at the start. Human cost of delayed action – a short thread prompted by a tweet…
Guayas is a region in Ecuador that has had a particularly tough time with COVID-19. Prompted by this Twitter post from Karsten Haustein I have done a bit of modelling… Spot on. (Un)fortunately, we have a real-world example. Corresponds to ~300.000 deaths in 6 weeks in the UK. pic.twitter.com/Ruei6U0w1c — Karsten Haustein 🌍 (@khaustein) May…
Has just been published! It wasn’t really my intention, but somehow we never came up with a proper title so now we’re stuck with it! This paper was born out of our long visit to Hamburg a few years ago, from some discussions relating to estimates of climate sensitivity. It was observed that there were…
(Small edit made 21 Apr to add a corollary at the bottom of the post.) I’ve said bits of this in various places and at various times to various people, but I don’t think I have written it down in a complete and coherent form. Actually, bits and pieces of the story have come to…
New manuscript! Now up on github too. Title as post. Yes, this is us dipping our toes into epidemiology. Turns out that calibrating a simple model with observational data is much the same whether it’s paleoclimate or epidemics. The maths and the methods are much the same. In fact this one is a particularly easy one…
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