Assessing Paleoclimate Uncertainty

This was the title of a recent workshop held by the Past Earth Network (PEN) in Cambridge. PEN is one of 4 EPSRC-funded networks aiming to bring together mathematicians/statisticians and environmental scientists to help address problems in environmental change. While I wasn’t part of the PEN bid, I am acting as one of the co-leaders…

On the meaning of independence in climate science

At long last jules and I have managed to submit the written version of a talk that I have given (bits of) no fewer than four times over the last few years (at NCAR, UKMO/HC, Schloss Ringberg and EGU). It had to get re-written several times and sit at the back of my mind on…

Oh Vienna redux

It’s April, so it must be EGU time again! No Vienna marathon this time – the race was the same date as Manchester this year, a week too early for our trip – so we went purely for the science. Well, the science and the schnitzel. The plan was to go over on the Friday…

Could the Pliocene constrain the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity?

The long-awaited prequel to “Can the Last Glacial Maximum constrain climate sensitivity?” is now up on CPD and open for comment. This latest episode is set back in the mid-Pliocene warm period 3-3.3Ma BP (MPWP, sometimes also called mid-Piacenzian by people who care deeply about the conventions for paleoclimate nomenclature). The particular reason for looking…

TANSTAAFL

Otherwise known as, there ain’t no such thing as a free lunch. At least, there isn’t any longer in the Climate Division at NCAR. It feels like a long time ago that we last dropped in to give seminars at NCAR. Well, perhaps that’s not so surprising as it was during our previous careers 🙂…

Evaluation of CMIP5 palaeo-simulations to improve climate projections

Our latest paper has just appeared in Nature Climate Change: “Evaluation of CMIP5 palaeo-simulations to improve climate projections”. It was mainly the brainchild of Sandy Harrison, intended as a response/update to the “preview” paper “Evaluation of climate models using palaeoclimatic data” which promised that the PMIP component of CMIP5 would provide assessments of model performance,…