How to do emergent constraints properly

Way back in the mists of time, we did a little bit of work on “emergent constraints”. This is a slightly hackneyed term referring to the use of a correlation across an ensemble of models between something we can’t measure but want to estimate (like the equilibrium climate sensitivity S) and something that we can…

Catastrophic tipping points of no return, returned!

Science has been done and papers written! Deadlines have been met! And not by the Govt’s imaginative strategy of declaring that the deadlines no longer exist, as they are doing with NHS waiting times. Though that did seem like an appealing strategy at some points. I will blog about some of it over the next…

Mina olen Eesti e-resident! 🇪🇪

I believe the title of the post proclaims me to be an Estonian e-resident. jules likewise. This marks the culmination of a very straightforward on-line process which was remarkably painless right up to the moment that we had to attend the Estonian Embassy in London to pick up our identity cards in person, at which…

Marty Weitzman: Dismally Wrong.

De mortuis nil nisi bonum and all that, but I realise I only wrote this down in a very abbreviated and perhaps unclear form many years ago, in fact prior to publication of the paper it concerns. I was sad to hear of his untimely death and especially by suicide when he surely had much to…

How confident are you about confidence intervals?

Found a fun little quiz somewhere, which I thought some of my readers might like to take. My aim is not to embarrass people who may get some answers wrong – in testing, the vast majority of all respondents (including researchers who reported substantial  experience) were found to make mistakes. My hypothesis is that my readers…