James’ publications

Always under development, last updated Aug 2020. A complete but older (2013) version of my web page dating to my time in Japan can be found here, which is no longer maintained. I’m slowly working through this page adding links to the older papers, and also updating with new ones as they come in. My Google Scholar page is more up to date though that automatically indexes all sorts of conference abstracts etc and doesn’t necessarily have links to free pdfs.

topics – climate change, ensemble methods/uncertainty, paleoclimate

Publications (almost all peer-reviewed, selected non-reviewed in italics)


S. Sherwood, S., Webb, M. J., Annan, J. D., Armour, K. C., Forster, P. M., Hargreaves, J. C., et al. (2020). An assessment of Earth’s climate sensitivity using multiple lines of evidence. Reviews of Geophysics, 58, e2019RG000678. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019RG000678 (my copy)

J. D. Annan and J. C. Hargreaves. Bayesian deconstruction of climate sensitivity estimates using simple models: implicit priors, and the confusion of the inverse. Earth System Dynamics 11(2), 347-356 10.5194/esd-11-347-2020 (my copy)

J. D. Annan, J. C. Hargreaves, T. Mauritsen and B. Stevens, B. What could we learn about climate sensitivity from variability in the surface temperature record? Earth System Dynamics 11(3), 709-719}, 10.5194/esd-11-709-2020 (my copy)

J. D. Annan and J. C. Hargreaves. Model calibration, nowcasting, and operational prediction of the COVID-19 pandemic. medRxiv 10.1101/2020.04.14.20065227 (my copy).


Crucifix, M., & Annan, J.D.. Is the concept of ‘tipping point’ helpful for describing and communicating possible climate futures?. Contemporary Climate Change Debates: A Student Primer, 23. (my copy).


Ogura, T. et al. Effectiveness and limitations of parameter tuning in reducing biases of top-of-atmosphere radiation and clouds in MIROC version 5. Geoscientific Model Development 10 (12), 10.5194/gmd-10-4647-2017 (my copy).

J.D. Annan, J.C. Hargreaves. On the meaning of independence in climate science. Earth System Dynamics 8 (1), 211 (my copy)


J.C. Hargreaves, J.D. Annan Could the Pliocene constrain the equilibrium climate sensitivity? Climate of the Past 12 (8), 1591 (my copy)


J. D. Annan. Recent Developments in Bayesian Estimation of Climate Sensitivity, Current Climate Change Reports, Springer http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s40641-015-0023-5 (on-line here)

S. P. Harrison, P. J. Bartlein, K. Izumi, G. Li, J. Annan, J. Hargreaves, P. Braconnot & M. Kageyama. Evaluation of CMIP5 palaeo-simulations to improve climate projections, Nature Climate Change 5, 735–743 doi:10.1038/nclimate2649 (on-line here)

J. D. Annan and J. C. Hargreaves. A perspective on model-data surface temperature comparison at the Last Glacial Maximum. Quaternary Science Reviews 107, 1-10 (online)


J. C. Hargreaves and J. D. Annan. Can we trust climate models? Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change DOI:10.1002/wcc.288 (online here)

G. A. Schmidt, J. D. Annan, P. J. Bartlein, B. I. Cook, E. Guilyardi, J. C. Hargreaves, S. P. Harrison, M. Kageyama, A. N. LeGrande, B. Konecky, S. Lovejoy, M. E. Mann, V. Masson-Delmotte, C. Risi, D. Thompson, A. Timmermann, L.-B. Tremblay, and P. Yiou. Using paleo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5. Clim. Past, 10, 221-250 doi:10.5194/cp-10-221-2014  (online here)


Set of 4 non-reviewed articles in PAGES Newsletter number 21(2):
(1) G.J. Hakim, J. Annan, S. Brönnimann, M. Crucifix, T. Edwards, H. Goosse, A. Paul, G. van der Schrier and M. Widmann. Overview of data assimilation methods (online here)
(2) S. Brönnimann, J. Franke, P. Breitenmoser, G. Hakim, H. Goosse, M. Widmann, M. Crucifix, G. Gebbie, J. Annan and G. van der Schrier Transient state estimation in paleoclimatology using data assimilation (online here)
(3) T.L. Edwards, J. Annan, M. Crucifix, G. Gebbie and A. Paul. Best-of-both-worlds estimates for timeslices in the past (online here)
(4) J.D. Annan, M. Crucifix, T.L. Edwards and A. Paul. Parameter estimation using paleo-data assimilation (online here)

K. Tachiiri, J. C. Hargreaves, J. D. Annan, C. Huntingford and M. Kawamiya. Allowable carbon emissions for medium-to-high mitigation scenarios, Tellus B, 65(0), 154, doi:10.1175/2009JCLI2949.1, 2013. (online)

T. Yokohata, J. D. Annan, M. Collins, C. S. Jackson, H. Shiogama, M. Watanabe, S. Emori, M. Yoshimori, M. Abe, M. J. Webb, and J. C. Hargreaves. Reliability and importance of structural diversity of climate model ensembles. Climate Dynamics doi: 10.1007/s00382-013-1733-9, (online here).

J. C. Hargreaves, J. D. Annan, R. Ohgaito, A. Paul, and A. Abe-Ouchi. Skill and reliability of climate model ensembles at the Last Glacial Maximum and mid-Holocene. Clim. Past, 9, 811-823, doi:10.5194/cp-9-811-2013 (online here)

E. J. Stone, D. J. Lunt, J. D. Annan and J. C. Hargreaves. Quantification of the Greenland ice sheet contribution to Last Interglacial sea level rise. Clim. Past, 9, 621-639, 2013 doi:10.5194/cp-9-621-2013 (online here)

J. D. Annan and J. C. Hargreaves. A new global reconstruction of temperature changes at the Last Glacial Maximum, Clim. Past, 9, 367-376, doi:10.5194/cp-9-367-2013 (on-line)


J. C. Hargreaves, J. D. Annan, M. Yoshimori and A. Abe-Ouchi. Can the Last Glacial Maximum constrain climate sensitivity? GRL 39 doi:10.1029/2012GL053872 (here)

J. J. Day, J. C. Hargreaves, J. D. Annan and A. Abe-Ouchi. Sources of multi-decadal variability in Arctic sea ice extent. Environmental Research Letters 7 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/3/034011 (here).

H. Shiogama, M. Watanabe, M. Yoshimori, T. Yokohata, T. Ogura, J. D. Annan, J. C. Hargreaves, M. Abe, Y. Kamae, R. O’ishi, R. Nobui, S. Emori, T. Nozawa, A. Abe-Ouchi and M Kimoto. Perturbed Physics Ensemble using the MIROC5 Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean GCM without Flux Corrections: Experimental Design and Results. Climate Dynamics, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1441-x (here).

J. D. Annan and J. C. Hargreaves. Identification of climatic state with limited proxy data. Clim. Past 8 pp 1141-1151. (on-line).

K. Tachiiri, A. Ito, T. Hajima, J. C. Hargreaves, J. D. Annan, M. Kawamiya. Nonlinearity of Land Carbon Sensitivities in Climate Change Simulations, Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, vol 90A, pp 259-274 (on-line)

L. Das, J. D. Annan, J. C. Hargreaves, S. Emori. Improvements over three generations of climate model simulations for eastern India. Clim. Res. (2012) vol. 51 (3) pp. 201-216. (on-line).

M. Watanabe, H. Shiogama, T. Yokohata, Y. Kamae, M. Yoshimori, T. Ogura, J. D. Annan, J. C. Hargreaves, S. Emori, and M. Kimoto. Using a Multi-Physics Ensemble for Exploring Diversity in Cloud-Shortwave Feedback in GCMs, J Clim vol. 25, issue 15, pp. 5416-5431 doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00564.1 (here)


J. D. Annan, J. C. Hargreaves and K. Tachiiri. On the observational assessment of climate model performance GRL vol 38, L24702, 2011 doi:10.1029/2011GL049812 (here)

T. Yokohata, J. D. Annan, M. Collins, C. S. Jackson, M. Tobis, M. J. Webb and J. C. Hargreaves. Reliability of multi-model and structurally different single-model ensembles, Climate Dynamics 39, p599-616. DOI 10.1007/s00382-011-1203-1 (here).

J. C. Hargreaves, A. Paul, R. Ohgaito, A. Abe-Ouchi, and J. D. Annan. Are paleoclimate model ensembles consistent with the MARGO data synthesis? Climate of the Past 7, 917–933, doi:10.5194/cp-7-917-2011 (here)

M. Yoshimori, J. C. Hargreaves, J. D. Annan, T. Yokohata and A. Abe-Ouchi. Dependency of Feedbacks on Forcing and Climate State in Physics Parameter Ensembles. Journal of Climate 24, 6440-6455 (here)

J. D. Annan and J. C. Hargreaves, Understanding the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble, Journal of Climate 24, 4529–4538. doi: 10.1175/2011JCLI3873.1 (on-line here).

J. D. Annan and J. C. Hargreaves, Reply to Henriksson et al.’s comment on “Using multiple observationally-based constraints to estimate climate sensitivity” by Annan and Hargreaves (2010). Clim. Past, 7, 587-589, doi:10.5194/cp-7-587-2011 (on-line)

L. Das, J. D. Annan, J. C. Hargreaves and S. Emori, Centennial scale warming over Japan: are the rural stations really rural? Atmospheric Science Letters, DOI:10.1002/asl.350 (on-line)

J. D. Annan and J. C. Hargreaves, On the generation and interpretation of probabilistic estimates of climate sensitivity. Climatic Change Vol 104 Nos 3-4 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-009-9715-y (on-line here).


K. Tachiiri, J. C. Hargreaves, J. D. Annan, A. Oka, A. Abe-Ouchi and M. Kawamiya. Development of a system emulating the global carbon cycle in Earth system models, Geosci. Model Dev., 3, 365-376, 2010

J. D. Annan, Bayesian approaches to detection and attribution, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change DOI: 10.1002/wcc.47 (here)

G. Foster, J. D. Annan, P. D. Jones, M. E. Mann, B. Mullan, J. Renwick, J. Salinger, G. A. Schmidt, and K. E. Trenberth, Comment on “Influence of the Southern Oscillation on tropospheric temperature” by J. D. McLean, C. R. de Freitas, and R. M. Carter. JGR Atmospheres, Vol. 115, D09110, 2010 doi:10.1029/2009JD012960 with no accompanying reply from McLean et al because their manuscript was judged to be unsuitable for JGR.

T. Yokohata, M. J. Webb, M. Collins, K. D. Williams, M. Yoshimori, J. C. Hargreaves, J. D. Annan, Structural similarities and differences in climate responses to CO2 increase between two perturbed physics ensembles. Journal of Climate 23(6) 1392-1410 (here).

J. D. Annan and J. C. Hargreaves, Efficient identification of ocean thermodynamics in a physical/biogeochemical ocean model with an iterative Importance Sampling method, Ocean Modelling 32 (3-4) 205-215 (here)

J. D. Annan and J. C. Hargreaves, Reliability of the CMIP3 ensemble, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L02703, doi:10.1029/2009GL041994 (here) and see also my blog.

For earlier papers, see my old work page. You can probably google the papers easily enough if you want to find them. Email me if there’s anything you can’t find on sci-hub!


J. C. Hargreaves and J. D. Annan, The importance of paleoclimate modelling for improving predictions of future climate change, Clim. Past, 5,803-814 (on-line here)

M. Abe, H. Shiogama, J. C. Hargreaves, J. D. Annan, T. Nozawa and S. Emori, Correlation between Inter-model Similarities in Spatial Pattern for Present and Projected Future Mean Climate, SOLA, Vol.5, 133-136, doi:10.2151/sola.2009-034 (on-line)

J. C. Hargreaves and J. D. Annan, Comment on “Aerosol radiative forcing and climate sensitivity deduced from the Last Glacial Maximum to Holocene transition”, by P. Chylek and U. Lohmann, Geophys. Res. Lett., 2008. Clim. Past, 5, 143-145, 2009 (on-line)

P. J. Michaels, P. C. Knappenberger, J. R. Christy, C. S. Herman, L. M. Liljegren, J. D. Annan. Assessing the consistency between short-term global temperature trends in observations and climate model projections. Rejected by GRL, but the main conclusion seems widely accepted now (Arxived).


G. Foster, J. D. Annan, G. A. Schmidt and M. E. Mann, Comment on `Heat capacity, time constant and sensitivity of Earth’s climate system’ by S. Schwartz Vol. 113, D15102, doi:10.1029/2007JD009373 (on-line here), with some blog coverage here and here.


F. W. M. Brown, R. A. Pielke and J. D. Annan, Is there agreement amongst climate scientists on the IPCC AR4 WG1? Unpublished.

J. C. Hargreaves, A. Abe-Ouchi, J. D. Annan. Linking glacial and future climates through an ensemble of GCM simulations. Climate of the Past, 3, 77-87 (on-line).

A. Ridgwell, J. C. Hargreaves, N. R. Edwards, J. D. Annan, T. M. Lenton, R. Marsh, A. Yool, A. Watson. Marine geochemical data assimilation in an efficient Earth System Model of global biogeochemical cycling. Biogeosciences 4, 87-104 (their version).

J.D. Annan and J.C. Hargreaves, Efficient estimation and ensemble generation in climate modelling, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 365(1857). 2077-2088.

T. Lenton, Y. Aksenov, J.D. Annan, T. Cooper-Chadwick, S. Cox, N. Edwards, S. Goswami, J.C. Hargreaves, P. Harris, Z. Jiao, V. Livina, D. Lunt, R. Marsh, T. Payne, A. Price, A. Ridgwell, I. Rutt, J.G. Shepherd, P. Valdes, G. Williams, M. Williamson, A. Yool., A modular, scalable, Grid ENabled Integrated Earth system modelling (GENIE) framework: Effects of dynamical atmosphere and ocean resolution on bi-stability of the thermohaline circulation, Climate Dynamics DOI 10.1007/s00382-007-0254-9 (their version).

I. Andreu-Burillo, J. Holt, R. Proctor, J. D. Annan, I. D. James and D. Prandle. Assimilation of sea surface temperature in the POL Coastal Ocean Modelling System. Journal of Marine Systems 65, 1-4, 27-40 (their version).

S. L. Smith, B. E. Casareto, M. P. Niraula, Y. Suzuki, J. C. Hargreaves, J. D. Annan and Y. Yamanaka. Examining the regeneration of nitrogen by assimilating Data from Incubations into a Multi-Element Ecosystem Model. Journal of Marine Systems 64, 1-4, 135-152 (their version).


J. D. Annan and J. C. Hargreaves. Using multiple observationally-based constraints to estimate climate sensitivity, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L06704, doi:10.1029/2005GL025259 (their on-line version). My commentary on this paper.

J. C. Hargreaves and J. D. Annan. Using ensemble prediction methods to examine regional climate variation under global warming scenarios. Ocean Modelling Vol 11 Nos 1-2 p174-192 (their on-line version). This was Ocean Modelling’s most downloaded article (for 9 months to Jan 2006, but no longer)!


J. D. Annan, J. C. Hargreaves, R. Ohgaito, A. Abe-Ouchi, S. Emori. Efficiently constraining climate sensitivity with paleoclimate simulations. SOLA Vol 1 pages 181-184.

J. D. Annan, D. J. Lunt, J. C. Hargreaves and P. J. Valdes. Parameter estimation in an atmospheric GCM using the Ensemble Kalman Filter. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 12 (3), pages 363-371 (their on-line version).

J. D. Annan. Parameter estimation using chaotic time series. Tellus A Vol 57 No 5 pp 709-714.

J. D. Annan, J. C. Hargreaves, N. R. Edwards and R. Marsh. Parameter estimation in an intermediate complexity Earth System Model using an ensemble Kalman filter. Ocean Modelling, Volume 8, Issues 1-2, Pages 135-154. (On-line version for subscribers – which is OM’s 5th most downloaded article, April 2004-March 2005)


J. D. Annan. Fundamental error in “Trends in serious head injuries…” Cook and Sheikh 2003. Injury Prevention Online. (Not related to my real job!)

J. C. Hargreaves, J. D. Annan, N. R. Edwards and R. Marsh. Climate forecasting using an intermediate complexity Earth System Model and the Ensemble Kalman Filter. Climate Dynamics Vol 23 Nos 7-8, pp 745-760, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-004-0471-4.
J. D. Annan and J. C. Hargreaves. Efficient parameter estimation for a highly chaotic system. Tellus A, Vol 56 No 5, Pages 520-526 (On-line version).

J. D. Annan. On the orthogonality of Bred Vectors. Monthly Weather Review, Vol 132, No 3, pp 843-849.


C. Huntingford, J. C. Hargreaves, T. M. Lenton and J. D. Annan. Extent of partial ice cover due to carbon cycle feedback in a zonal energy balance model. Hydrology and Earth System Science 7, pp213-219.


J. C. Hargreaves and J. D. Annan. Assimilation of paleo-data in a simple Earth system model. Climate Dynamics Vol 19 Nos 5-6, pp371-381.


J. K. Hargreaves, A. Ranta, J. D. Annan and J. C. Hargreaves, The temporal fine structure of night-time spike events in auroral radio absorption, studied by a wavelet method. Journal of Geophysical Research, 106(A11):24621–24636.

J. D. Annan. Hindcasting coastal sea levels in Morecambe Bay. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science Vol 53 Issue 4, pp459-466.

J. D. Annan. Modelling under uncertainty: Monte Carlo methods for temporally varying parameters. Ecological Modelling, 136(2–3):297–302.


F. Chen and J. D. Annan. The influence of different turbulence closure schemes on modelling primary production in a 1D coupled physical-biological model. Journal of Marine Systems 26:259–288.

J. C. Hargreaves and J. D. Annan. Comments on “Improvement of the Short-Fetch Behaviour in the Wave Ocean Model (WAM)”. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 18(4):711–715.


J. D. Annan. Reply to “Comments on the paper: On repeated parameter sampling in Monte Carlo simulations”. Ecological Modelling 124:255–257.

J. C. Hargreaves and J. D. Annan. The impact of fierce weather on lazy modelling. In The wind-driven air-sea interface, M. Banner (Editor), ADFA Document Production Centre, Canberra, Australia, 125–132.

J. D. Annan and J. C. Hargreaves. Sea surface temperature assimilation for a three-dimensional baroclinic model of shelf seas. Continental Shelf Research, 19:1507–1520 (on-line).

J. D. Annan. Numerical methods for the solution of the turbulence energy equations in shelf seas. International Journal for Numerical Methods in Fluids, 29:193–206.


J. D. Annan. On repeated parameter sampling in Monte Carlo simulations. Ecological Modelling 97(1–2):111–115.


J. C. Hargreaves, G. Gilmore and J. D. Annan. The influence of binary stars on Dwarf Spheroidal Galaxy kinematics. Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society 279(1):108–120.


J. D. Annan. The complexities of the coefficients of the Tutte polynomial. Discrete Applied Maths 57:93-103.


J. D. Annan. An approximation algorithm for counting the number of forests in dense graphs. Combinatorics, Probability and Computing 3:273-283.

J. D. Annan. The complexity of counting problems. D. Phil. Thesis, University of Oxford.

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