jules’ publications

updated 1 August 2016

H-index: 24. (Web of Science)

My work is wide ranging, with 25 papers cited in 8 chapters of Working Group 1 of the 5th IPCC report (AR5).
topics – paleoclimate, ensemble methods/uncertainty, future climate, carbon cycle/biogeochemistry, astrophysics/astronomy, solar-terrestrial science


64. Hargreaves, J. C., & Annan, J. D. (2016). Could the Pliocene constrain the equilibrium climate sensitivity? Climate of the Past, 12(8), 1591–1599. http://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1591-2016, pdf, open access online.


Not peer reviewed, Editorial: GMD Executive Editors [J. C. Hargreaves (Chief Editor), A. Kerkweg, R. Marsh, A. Ridgwell, D. M. Roche, and R. Sander], The publication of geoscientific model developments v1.1, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3487–3495, doi:10.5194/gmd-8-3487-20156,  pdf 

63. S. P. Harrison, P. J. Bartlein, K. Izumi, G. Li, J. Annan, J. Hargreaves, P. Braconnot & M. Kageyama, Evaluation of CMIP5 palaeo-simulations to improve climate projections, Nature Climate Change,  5, 735–743, 2015, doi:10.1038/nclimate2649, pdfpay wall.

62.  J.D. Annan and J.C. Hargreaves, A perspective on model-data temperature comparison at the Last Glacial Maximum, Quaternary Science Reviews 107, 1-10, 2015, pdfpay wall.


61. J.C. Hargreaves and J.D. Annan, Can we trust climate models?, invited opinion article for WIREs Climate Change, WIREs Clim Change, 5:435–440, 2014. doi: 10.1002/wcc.288. pdf and open access online.

60. G. A. Schmidt, J. D. Annan, P. J. Bartlein, B. I. Cook, E. Guilyardi, J. C. Hargreaves, S. P. Harrison, M. Kageyama, A. N. LeGrande, B. Konecky, S. Lovejoy, M. E. Mann, V. Masson-Delmotte, C. Risi, D. Thompson, A. Timmermann, L.-B. Tremblay, and P. Yiou, Using paleo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5, Clim. Past Clim. Past, 10, 221-250, 2014. pdf


59. Tachiiri, K., Hargreaves, J. C., Annan, J. D., Huntingford, C. and Kawamiya, M.: Allowable carbon emissions for medium-to-high mitigation scenarios, Tellus B, 65(0), 154, doi:10.1175/2009JCLI2949.1, 2013. pdf

58. Yokohata, T., Annan, J. D., Collins, M., Shiogama, H., Watanabe, M., Emori, S., Yoshimori, M., Abe, M., Webb, M. J. and Hargreaves, J. C.: Reliability and importance of structural diversity of climate model ensembles, Clim Dyn, November 2013, Volume 41, Issue 9-10, pp 2745-2763, doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1733-9, 2013. pdf

Not peer reviewed, Editorial: GMD Executive Editors [J. Annan, J.C. Hargreaves, D. Lunt (Chief Editor), A. Ridgwell, I. Rutt and R. Sander], The publication of geoscientific model developments v1.0, Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1233–1242, 2013 http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/6/1233/2013/ doi:10.5194/gmd-6-1233-2013 pdf 

Not very peer reviewed! EOS article: Julia Hargreaves, Klaus Keller and Tamsin Edwards, Examining Risks, Extreme Events, and Abrupt Changes (page 280) Article first published online: 6 AUG 2013 | DOI: 10.1002/2013EO320007 pdf

57. J.C. Hargreaves, J.D. Annan, R. Ohgaito, A. Paul, and A. Abe-Ouchi. Skill and reliability of climate model ensembles at the Last Glacial Maximum and mid-Holocene. Clim. Past, 9, 811–823, 2013 doi:10.5194/cp-9-811-2013 (sub July 2012, acc Feb 2013, pub Mar 2013). pdf

56. Emma J. Stone, Daniel J. Lunt, James D. Annan and Julia.C. Hargreaves, Quantification of Greenland ice-sheet contribution to Last Interglacial sea-level rise. Clim. Past, 9, 621–639, 2013 doi:10.5194/cp-9-621-2013 (sub July 2012, acc Feb 2013, pub March 2013). pdf

55. J.D. Annan and J.C. Hargreaves. A new global reconstruction of temperature changes at the Last Glacial Maximum. Clim. Past, 9, 367–376, doi:10.5194/cp-9-367-2013, 2013. (sub Sep 2012, acc Jan 2013, pub Feb 2013). pdf


54. J.C. Hargreaves, J.D. Annan, M. Yoshimori and A. Abe-Ouchi. Can the Last Glacial Maximum constrain climate sensitivity? GRL, Vol. 39, L24702, doi:10.1029/2012GL053872, 2012. (submitted Sep 2012, published Dec 2012). pdf

53. H. Shiogama, M. Watanabe, M. Yoshimori, T. Yokohata, T. Ogura, J.D. Annan, J.C. Hargreaves, M. Abe, Y. Kamae, R. O’ishi, R. Nobui, S. Emori, T. Nozawa, A. Abe-Ouchi and M. Kimoto. Perturbed Physics Ensemble using the MIROC5 Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean GCM without Flux Corrections: Experimental Design and Results. Climate Dynamics, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1441-x, Volume 39, Issue 12, pp 3041-3056, (sub Aug 2011, pub online July 2012, pub on paper Dec 2012). pdf

52. J.D. Annan and J.C. Hargreaves. Identification of climatic state with limited proxy data. Clim. Past 8 pp 1141-1151, 2012. (sub Jan 2012, acc + pub June 2012) pdf

51. J.J. Day, J. C. Hargreaves, J. D. Annan and A. Abe-Ouchi. Sources of multi-decadal variability in Arctic sea ice extent. Environmental Research Letters 7 034011 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/3/034011 (sub May 2012, acc July 2012, pub July 2012) pdf

50. M. Watanabe, H. Shiogama, T. Yokohata, Y. Kamae, M. Yoshimori, T. Ogura, J.D. Annan,J.C. Hargreaves, S. Emori, and M. Kimoto. Using a Multiphysics Ensemble for Exploring Diversity in Cloud–Shortwave Feedback in GCMs. J. Climate, 25, 5416–5431. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00564.1(sub Sept 2011, acc Feb 2012, in print Aug 2012). pdf

9. K. Tachiiri, A. Ito, T. Hajima, J.C. Hargreaves, J. D. Annan, and M. Kawamiya, Nonlinearity of Land Carbon Sensitivities in Climate Change Simulations, Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, vol 90A, pp 259-274, DOI:10.2151/jmsj.2012-A13 (sub. Mar 2011, acc Oct 2011, pub June 2012) pdf

48. T. Yokohata, J.D. Annan, M. Collins, C.S. Jackson, M. Tobis, M.J. Webb, J.C. Hargreaves, Reliability of multi-model and structurally different single-model ensembles, Climate Dynamics, Climate Dynamics, Volume 39, Numbers 3-4 (2012), 599-616, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-011-1203-1. (sub. Mar 2011, acc+online Aug 2011, in print Aug 2012) pdf

47. L.Das, J.D. Annan, J.C. Hargreaves and S. Emori, Improvements over three generations of climate model simulations in Eastern India, Climate Research, 51: 201–216, 2012 (accepted October 2011, published March 2012). pdf


46. M. Yoshimori, J. C. Hargreaves, J. D. Annan, T. Yokohata, and A. Abe-Ouchi,Dependency of Feedbacks on Forcing and Climate State in Physics Parameter Ensembles, Journal of Climate, 24, 6440-6455 (sub. Aug 2010, acc and pub online May 2011, in print Dec 2011) pdf

45. J.D. Annan,J.C. Hargreaves and K. Tachiiiri, On the observational assessment of climate model performance, GRL, VOL. 38, L24702, 5 pages, doi:10.1029/2011GL049812,2011. (sub Aug 2011, acc and published online Nov 2011). pdf

44. L. Das, J.D. Annan, J.C. Hargreaves, S. Emori, Centennial scale warming over Japan: are the rural stations really rural?, Atmos. Sci. Let. DOI:10.1002/asl.350, Vol. 12, Issue 4, 362–367, 2011. (sub. Nov 2010, acc and pub online May 2011, hardcopy Oct/Dec 2011) pdf

43. J.C. Hargreaves, A. Paul, R. Ohgaito, A. Abe-Ouchi, J. D. Annan, Are paleoclimate model ensembles consistent with the MARGO data synthesis? Climate of the Past 7, 917–933, doi:10.5194/cp-7-917-2011, 2011. (sub. Feb 2011, accepted July 2011, published August 2011). pdf

42. J.D. Annan and J.C. Hargreaves, Reply to Henriksson et al.’s comment on “Using multiple observationally-based constraints to estimate climate sensitivity” by Annan and Hargreaves, CP, 7, 587-589, (sub. Jan 2011, acc May 2011, pub Jun 2011). pdf

41. J. D. Annan and J. C. Hargreaves, Understanding the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble, Journal of Climate, 24,4529–4538. doi: 10.1175/2011JCLI3873.1, 2011. (sub. May 2010, acc, pub. online Mar 2011, pub hardcopy August 2011) pdf

40. J.D. Annan and J.C. Hargreaves. On the generation and interpretation of probabilistic estimates of climate sensitivity. Volume 104, Numbers 3-4, 423-436, 2011 DOI:10.1007/s10584-009-9715-y Climatic Change, (Published Online First Oct 2009, finally published in hardcopy mid 2011!) pdf


39. K. Tachiiri, J.C. Hargreaves, J.D. Annan, A. Oka, A. Abe-Ouchi, and M. Kawamiya: Development of a system emulating the global carbon cycle in Earth system models, GMD, 3, 365-376,(sub., Dec 2009, acc. Jul 2010, pub. Aug 2010) pdf

38. J.C. Hargreaves Skill and uncertainty in climate models, WIREs, 1(4), 1757-7799 (submitted Nov 2009, accepted May 2010, published June 2010) pdf

37. J. D. Annan and J. C. Hargreaves, Reliability of the CMIP3 ensemble. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L02703, doi:10.1029/2009GL041994, 2010 (submitted and accepted, December 2009, published Jan 2010) pdf

36. T. Yokohata, M Webb, M Collins, K Williams, M. Yoshimori, J.C. Hargreaves and J.D. Annan Structural similarities and differences in climate responses to CO2 increase between two perturbed physics ensembles by general circulation models. Journal of Climate, 23(6) 1392-1410 , 2010. (Accepted Sep 2009, published 15 March 2010) pdf

35. J.D. Annan and J.C. Hargreaves, Efficient identification of a ocean thermodynamics in a physical/biogeochemical ocean model with an iterative Importance Sampling method, Ocean Modelling, 32, 205–215, 2010. (submitted Aug 2009, Accepted Feb 2010, Published Mar 2010) pdf


34. J.C. Hargreaves and J.D. Annan, On the importance of the paleoclimate modelling for improving predictions of future climate change. Climate of the Past, 5, 803-814, 2009. pdf

33. Manabu Abe, Hideo Shiogama,Julia C. Hargreaves, James D. Annan, Toru Nozawa and Seita Emori; “Correlation between Inter-Model Similarities in Spatial Pattern for Present and Projected Future Mean Climate”, SOLA, Vol. 5, pp.133-136 (2009), published Aug 2009 pdf

32. J.C. Hargreaves and J.D. Annan, Comment on “Aerosol radiative forcing and climate sensitivity deduced from the Last Glacial Maximum to Holocene transition”, by P. Chylek and U. Lohmann, Geophys. Res. Lett., Clim. Past, 5, 143-145, published Apr 2009. pdf


31. G.-K. Plattner, R. Knutti, F. Joos, T. F. Stocker, W. von Bloh, V. Brovkin, D. Cameron, E. Driesschaert, S. Dutkiewicz, M. Eby, N. R. Edwards, T. Fichefet, J. C. Hargreaves, C. D. Jones, M. F. Loutre, H. D. Matthews, A. Mouchet, S. A. Mueller, S. Nawrath, A. Price, A. Sokolov, K. M. Strassmann, and A. J. Weaver, Long-term climate commitments projected with climate – carbon cycle models, Journal of Climate, 21, (12), 2721-2751, 2008. pdf


30. A. Ridgwell, I. Zondervan, J.C. Hargreaves, J. Bijma, T. Lenton, Assessing the potential long-term increase of oceanic fossil fuel CO2 uptake due to CO2-calcification feedback, Biogeosciences, 4, 481-492, 2007 pdf

29. T.M. Lenton, R. Marsh, A.R. Price, D.J. Lunt, Y. Aksenov, J.D. Annan, T. Cooper-Chadwick, S.J. Cox, N.R. Edwards, S. Goswami, J.C. Hargreaves, P.P. Harris, Z. Jiao, V.N. Livina, A.J. Payne, I.C. Rutt, J.G. Shepherd, P. J. Valdes, G. Williams, M.S. Williamson, and A. Yool, Effects of atmospheric dynamics and ocean resolution on bi-stability of the thermohaline circulation examined using the Grid ENabled Integrated Earth system modelling (GENIE) framework, Climate Dynamics, 26, 6, 591-613, 2007  DOI:10.1007/s00382-007-0254-9. pdf

28. A. Ridgwell, J.C. Hargreaves, N.R. Edwards, J.D. Annan, T.M. Lenton, R. Marsh, A. Yool, and A. Watson, Marine geochemical data assimilation in an efficient Earth System Model of global biogeochemical cycling, Biogeosciences, 4, 87-104, 2007. pdf

27. A. Ridgwell and J.C. Hargreaves, Ocean sediment data assimilation within an Earth system model: The importance of deep-sea carbonates in the long-term sequestration of fossil fuel CO2, GBC, 21, doi:10.1029/2006GB002764 (2007). pdf

26. J.D. Annan and J.C. Hargreaves, Efficient estimation and ensemble generation in climate modelling, Philisophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 365, 1857, 2077-2088, 2007 pdf

[I was lead editor of this SI – this editorial was not peer-reviewed] “Modelling Late Quaternary Climate”, Eds. J.C. Hargreaves, N. Weber, P. Braconnot and J. Guiot, Climate of the Past, Special Issue, 2007. pdf

25. J.C. Hargreaves, A. Abe-Ouchi and J.D. Annan, Linking glacial and future climates through an ensemble of GCM simulations, Climate of the Past, 3, 77-87, 2007. pdf

24. S. L. Smith, B. E. Casareto, M. P. Niraula, Y. Suzuki, J.C. Hargreaves, J. D. Annan and Y. Yamanaka. Assimilating Data from Incubations into a Multi-Element Ecosystem Model, Journal of Marine Systems, vol. 64, no.1-4, p135-152. 2007. pdf


23. J.D. Annan and J.C. Hargreaves, Using multiple observationally-based constraints to estimate climate sensitivity, Geophysical Research Letters, 33 (6): Art. No. L06704, Mar 18, 2006 pdf

22. J.C. Hargreaves and J.D. Annan, Using ensemble prediction methods to examine regional climate variation under global warming scenarios, Ocean Modelling, 11 (1-2): 174-192 2006 pdf


21. J.D. Annan, D.J. Lunt DJ, J.C. Hargreaves and P.J. Valdes, Parameter estimation in an atmospheric GCM using the Ensemble Kalman Filter, Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 12 (3): 363-371 2005. pdf

20. J. D. Annan, J. C. Hargreaves, R. Ohgaito, A. Abe-Ouchi, S. Emori. Efficiently constraining climate sensitivity with paleoclimate simulations. SOLA Vol 1 pages 181-184, 2005. pdf

19. J.D. Annan JD, J.C. Hargreaves, N.R. Edwards and R. Marsh, Parameter estimation in an intermediate complexity earth system model using an ensemble Kalman filter, Ocean Modelling, 8 (1-2): 135-154 2005. pdf


18. J.C. Hargreaves, J.D. Annan, N.R. Edwards and R. Marsh, An efficient climate forecasting method using an intermediate complexity Earth System Model and the ensemble Kalman filter, Climate Dynamics, 23 (7-8): 745-760 Dec 2004. pdf

17. J.D. Annan and J.C.Hargreaves, Efficient parameter estimation for a highly chaotic system, Tellus Series A – Dynamic Meteorology and oceanography, 56 (5): 520-526 OCT 2004. pdf


16. J.C. Hargreaves and A. Abe-Ouchi, Timing of ice-age terminations determined by wavelet methods, Paleoceanography, 18 (2): Art. No. 1035 May 16 2003 pdf

15. C. Huntingford, J.C. Hargreaves, T.M. Lenton and J.D. Annan, Extent of partial ice cover due to carbon cycle feedback in a zonal energy balance model, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 7 (2): 213-219 Apr 2003. pdf


14. J.C. Hargreaves and J.D. Annan, Assimilation of paleo-data in a simple Earth system model, Climate Dynamics 19 (5-6): 371-381 Aug 2002. pdf

13. J.C. Hargreaves, D.J.T. Carter, P.D. Cotton and J. Wolf, Using the SWAN wave model and satellite altimeter data to study the influence of climate change at the coast, The Global Atmosphere and Ocean System, 8 (1): 41-66, Mar 2002.


12. J.K.Hargreaves, A. Ranta, J.D. Annan and J.C. Hargreaves, Temporalfine structure of nighttime spike events in auroral radio absorption, studied by a wavelet method, Journal of Geophsyical Research – Space Physics, 106 (A11): 24621-24636, Nov 1 2001. pdf

11. J.C. Hargreaves and J.D. Annan, Comments on “Improvement of the short-fetch behavior in the wave ocean model (WAM)”, Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 18 (4): 711-715 2001 pdf


10. J. Monbaliu, R. Padilla-Hernandez, J.C. Hargreaves, J.C.C. Albiach, W.M. Luo, M. Sclavo and H. Gunther, The spectral wave model, WAM, adapted for applications with high spatial resolution, Coastal Engineering, 41 (1-3): 41-62 Sep 2000. pdf

9. D. Prandle D, J.C. Hargreaves, J.P. McManus, A.R. Campbell, K. Duwe, A. Lane, P. Mahnke, S. Sminwelland J. Wolf. Tide, wave and suspended sediment modelling on an open coast – Holderness, Coastal Engineering, 41 (1-3): 237-267 Sep 2000. pdf

Last Century

J.C. Hargreaves and J.D. Annan. The impact of fierce weather on lazy modelling. In The wind-driven air-sea interface, Ed. M. Banner, ADFA Document Production Centre, Canberra, Australia, 125–132, 1999. pdf

7. J. Monbaliu, J.C. Hargreaves, J.C.C. Carretero, H. Gerritsen and R. Flather, Wave modelling in the PROMISE project, Coastal Engineering, 37 (3-4): 379-407 Aug 1999. pdf

6. J.D. Annan and J.C. Hargreaves, Sea surface temperature assimilation for a three-dimensional baroclinic model of shelf seas Continental Shelf Research, 19 (11): 1507-1520 Sep 1999. pdf

5. J.C. Hargreaves, G. Gilmore, M.J. Irwin and D. Carter , A dynamical study of the Draco dwarf spheroidal galaxy, Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, 282 (2): 305-312 Sep 15 1996. pdf

4. J.C. Hargreaves, G. Gilmore, J.D. Annan, The influence of binary stars on dwarf spheroidal galaxy kinematics, MNRAS 279 (1): 108-120 Mar 1 1996. pdf

3. J.C. Hargreaves, The Dynamics of Dwarf Spheroidal Galaxies, PhD Thesis, University of Cambridge, 1995

2. J.C. Hargreaves, G. Gilmore, M.J. Irwin and D. Carter , A dynamical study of the Ursa Minor dwarf spheroidal galaxy, MNRAS, 271: 693 Sep 15 1994. pdf

1. J.C. Hargreaves, G. Gilmore, M.J. Irwin and D .Carter , A dynamical study of the Sextans dwarf spheroidal galaxy, MNRAS, 269: 957 Sep 15 1994. pdf

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