Modelling the ONS COVID data part 2

Continuing from previously…I have done some upgrades to the method and now have some results that I think are quite acceptable. Most importantly, after thinking about (and getting half-way to implementing) appropriate covariance matrices for the overlapping fortnightly observational summaries, I decided that the most sensible thing to do was just to use a single…

Modelling the ONS COVID data

I’ve grumbled for a while about the ONS analyses of their infection survey pilot (pilot? isn’t it a full-blown survey yet?) without doing anything about it. The purpose of this blog is to outline the issue, get me started on fixing it (or at least presenting my own approach to an analysis) and commit me…

Like a phoenix…

So, the fortnightly chunks in the last post were doing ok, but it’s still a bit clunky. I quickly found that the MCMC method I was using couldn’t really cope with shorter intervals (meaning more R values to estimate). So, after a bit of humming and hawing, I dusted off the iterative Ensemble Kalman Filter…

The EGU review

Well.. that was a very different EGU! We were supposed to be in Vienna, but that was all cancelled a while back of course. I might have felt sorry for my AirBnB host but despite Austria banning everything they didn’t reply to my communication and refused a refund so when AirBnB eventually (after a lot…

Why can’t the Germans be more like us?

And now for the previous post, in reverse. Germany locked down at about the same time as the UK. Actually probably a couple of days earlier, according to Wikipedia and Flaxman et al. Picking a single date is a bit subjective really, but for the purposes of this post I’ll choose the 21st March. So…

Snap

A week ago, I blogged the graph on the left. Last night, one of the epidemiological modelling teams advising the Govt published the graph on the right. Billed as “new research”, it has formed the basis of the new Govt guidelines on social distancing to deal with the coronavirus pandemic. Apart from the choice of colours,…