Blue Skies Research on tour: Exeter edition

A while ago Mark (leader of the top secret project we are involved in) suggested that it had been a while since we visited the Met Office in Exeter where he works (blog tells me it was exactly 5 years ago, shortly after we had returned to the UK and before Blue Skies Research was really…

How to do emergent constraints properly

Way back in the mists of time, we did a little bit of work on “emergent constraints”. This is a slightly hackneyed term referring to the use of a correlation across an ensemble of models between something we can’t measure but want to estimate (like the equilibrium climate sensitivity S) and something that we can…

Catastrophic tipping points of no return, returned!

Science has been done and papers written! Deadlines have been met! And not by the Govt’s imaginative strategy of declaring that the deadlines no longer exist, as they are doing with NHS waiting times. Though that did seem like an appealing strategy at some points. I will blog about some of it over the next…

How confident should you have been about confidence intervals?

OK, it’s answer time for these questions. First, a little background. This is the paper, or rather, here it is to download. The questions were asked of over 100 psychology researchers and 400 students and virtually none of them got all the answers right, with more wrong than right answers overall. The questions were modelled…

Stockholm

Just had a couple of weeks in Stockholm, courtesy of Thorsten Mauritsen at MISU. who we had previously visited in Hamburg. Lots of science will be forthcoming but we are too busy doing it to write about it for now 🙂 For the moment, I will just note that Thorsten is Danish, previously working in…

Comments on Cox et al

And to think a few weeks ago I was thinking that not much had been happening in climate science…now here’s another interesting issue. I previously blogged quite a lot about the Cox et al paper (see here, here, here). It generated a lot of interest  in the scientific community and I’m not terribly surprised that…