How confident should you have been about confidence intervals?

OK, it’s answer time for these questions. First, a little background. This is the paper, or rather, here it is to download. The questions were asked of over 100 psychology researchers and 400 students and virtually none of them got all the answers right, with more wrong than right answers overall. The questions were modelled…

Stockholm

Just had a couple of weeks in Stockholm, courtesy of Thorsten Mauritsen at MISU. who we had previously visited in Hamburg. Lots of science will be forthcoming but we are too busy doing it to write about it for now 🙂 For the moment, I will just note that Thorsten is Danish, previously working in…

Comments on Cox et al

And to think a few weeks ago I was thinking that not much had been happening in climate science…now here’s another interesting issue. I previously blogged quite a lot about the Cox et al paper (see here, here, here). It generated a lot of interest  in the scientific community and I’m not terribly surprised that…

That new ocean heat content estimate

From Resplandy et al (conveniently already up on sci-hub): Our result — which relies on high-precision O2 measurements dating back to 1991 — suggests that ocean warming is at the high end of previous estimates, with implications for policy- relevant measurements of the Earth response to climate change, such as climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases…

Cox et al part 3

As promised some more on this. The first thing I thought, on seeing this paper – a feeling that others apparently shared – was, why had no-one else already thought of this? Had we all just behaved like the fabled economist who, when their companion points out a £10 note lying on the pavement, ignores it,…

The AGU review 2016

We’d rather enjoyed our last trip to the AGU and had always hoped to go back some time but it’s a long and expensive trip from the UK especially without having access to JAMSTEC’s generous travel budget. Back in February, PEN had decided to propose a session at the AGU this year, and there was…

Blueskies tour of the USA

The possibility of visiting NCAR has been at the back of our minds for some time, so when the rare honour of invitations to speak at the AGU Fall Meeting in San Francisco plopped into both of our inboxes around June, we swung into action. A couple of months at NCAR rounded off with an…