Catastrophic tipping points of no return, returned!

Science has been done and papers written! Deadlines have been met! And not by the Govt’s imaginative strategy of declaring that the deadlines no longer exist, as they are doing with NHS waiting times. Though that did seem like an appealing strategy at some points. I will blog about some of it over the next week or two, which may also help marshal our thoughts for a few talks on our work that jules and I are going to give in the next couple of months.

But before I get on with that…just when you thought it was safe to get back on the see-saw…

Someone (ok it was ATTP) recently asked for a copy of my tipping points essay, so having found a version in my increasingly chaotic disk space I thought I might as well put it up here. It’s the final submitted version, there were a few edits in proofs but nothing significant. I don’t have an electronic version of the final publication but the physical book I have in my possession looks very smart (I haven’t had time to read it). If you want Michel’s contrary essay then you’ll have to ask him for it or else just buy the book which is linked in this previous post. I think we were largely talking past each other as he preferred to focus on mathematical details whereas I was aiming more towards the  original concept of hothouse catastrophising. At least how I see it. I’m sure there are lots more interesting essays in the book (and you can read that however you prefer).

Anyway, there you are. Brickbats and bouquets welcome.

5 thoughts on “Catastrophic tipping points of no return, returned!

  1. Since I’m sitting waiting for a train, I have a moment to make a quick comment. I enjoyed your article, but I thought I would comment on your criticism of the 100 months campaign. Having read their website and Guardian article, the rhetoric is too extreme for my taste, and the claims of a tipping point at 2C seems wrong (although I’m not sure what the scientific view was in ~2008). However, their basic estimate of 100 months seems about right. It was based on how long we had before it became too late to avoid crossing 2C. I think there is broad agreement that we’ve basically reached that point.

  2. Pingback: Debate about communicating tipping points | …and Then There's Physics

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